We may see a 20% rally from here into possibly March'ish

The 50 Day (simple) Moving Average was taken out in Tuesday's FOMC rally.

DJI Daily Candle 2008



Compared to the 1929-1932 Bear we are at the point of the "arrow".

Dow Jones Industrial Average January 1929 -- December 1933



After the first bottom following the 1929 crash, the Dow retraced 52.3% of the loss and reached the 200-day moving average over a period of five months. The arrow shows our equivalent position, now that we have penetrated the 50-day moving average.

So far this time we have retraced 19% to 8985.42, reached on December 5. Tuesday's close at 8924.14 is 18.1% above the low and it is 25% below the 200-day moving average.

However, the 200 day moving average is coming down by roughly 2 points a day, so it will be somewhere in the vicinity of 11000 by mid-April, which is five months after the low.

So, if we copy the 1929 crash, we'll intersect the 200-day average approximately 45% above the low.

January 2007 - Present