Long Term New Home Sales Chart

Self Explanatory

Visual Road Aid to the Financial Crisis

If you want a synopsis of all the government hearings we've had lately then...

watch this summary, it has been reduced into an easy ~2 minute video to watch.

The Silver Lining: Wild Swings Equal Bottoming Out Process?

From a bearish well respected analyst/economist.

From Merrill's David Rosenberg:-------------------Most volatile month in the 80-year history of the S&P 500From 2003 to 2007, there was not one session which saw a 4% move in the market; there were 9 in October alone. Perhaps this sort of volatility is typical of a bottoming process – we had 8 of these in September 1932, when indeed the market was in a bottoming formation. Be that as it may, we are willing to wait it out and see how the testing process evolves (see more below). The last week of October was, amazingly, the best in 34 years for the S&P 500 – up 10.5%, the best since the week ending October 11th, 1974 (the market had bottomed the week before on October 3rd). Yet, that great week did not stop the whole month of October from seeing the S&P 500 dive 16.9%, in the worst month since Oct/87 (though that was practically a one-day event). The Dow fell 14.7% last month and all 30 stocks were down, but in the final week, it was up 11.3% and all but one of the 30 stocks finished higher.Only 7 out of the S&P 100 were down this week, but only 9 were up for the month (see page B3 of the Saturday NYT). The Russell 2000 also plunged but finished the week with a resounding 14.1% gain. This is unbelievable. Oil prices were down a record 33% in the month; and gold was off 18% for its worst month in 28 years; copper and aluminum suffered their worst losses in 20 years. High-yield bonds endured their worst month ever too – negative returns of 15.5% in the USA and 22.7% in Europe, so the carnage was hardly confined to equities. The only real winner we can see was the 2-year Treasury note, which generated a 1.1% return in October – the fifth straight month of positive returns (now what other asset class can boast that result?).

The CDS World Depends on Italy and Spain - Who Knew?

borrowed from seekingalpha blogspot

Consumer Short Term Financing/Discretionary Spending Getting a Punch in the Face

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Credit card companies were shut out of the market for bonds backed by customer payments in October for the first time in more than 15 years, as investors shunned the debt amid the global credit freeze.
A weakening job market and a looming recession are making it harder for consumers to make monthly payments, eroding confidence among investors about the safety of credit-card-backed bonds. It's the first month since April 1993 that there have been no sales, according to Wachovia Corp. data. Issuers sold $17.1 billion of the debt in October 2007, the data show.
``Nobody is eager to put money to work given the uncertainty in the market,'' said James Grady, a managing director at Deutsche Bank AG's asset management unit. ``When you think it can't get worse, it continues to get worse. There is not a demand'' for these bonds.
Top-rated credit card-backed securities maturing in three years traded at a gap, or spread, of 475 basis points over the London interbank offered rate during the week ended Oct. 30, JPMorgan Chase & Co. data show, 25 basis points higher than the previous week. The debt was trading at 50 basis points more than Libor in January.
The higher cost to sell the bonds makes it more expensive for banks and credit card companies to fund loans to customers. New York-based American Express Co. paid 160 basis points more than Libor at a Sept. 11 sale of the securities compared with 30 basis points over the benchmark at a similar sale in October 2007, Bloomberg data show.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aajOmDkW3xeE&refer=home

S&P 500 Crash Chart Comparisons

Something to consider: Especially in a Bear market

The DJIA Top 11 Biggest % Gains of all time:

1. March 15, 1933 … 15.34%
2. Oct. 6, 1931 ….. 14.87%
3. Oct. 30, 1929 …. 12.34%
4. Sept. 21, 1932 … 11.36%
5. Oct. 13, 2008 …. 11.08% !!!!
6. Oct. 28, 2008 …. 10.88% !!!!
7. Oct. 21, 1987 …. 10.15%
8. Aug. 3, 1932 …. 9.52%
9. Feb. 11, 1932 …. 9.47%
10.Nov. 14, 1929 …. 9.36%
11.Dec. 18, 1931 …. 9.35%

Just sayin' , bear rallies can be especially violent

Time to dip the toes into international stocks?

Stock markets around the world have fallen very far from their recent highs, most of which were reached late in 2007. Here's list compiled by the LA Times:

Iceland -88.7%
Russia -73.9%
Ireland -73.4%
Peru -73.2%
Vietnam -70.5%
China -69.8%
Poland -62.6%
Hong Kong -60.1%
Brazil -57.2%
Egypt -56.9%
Italy -55.2%
South Korea -54.5%
Turkey -58.5%
India -58.3%
Singapore -58.2%
Japan -58.1%
Mexico -48.3%
Germany -47.0%
Spain -46.4%
U.S.-S&P 500 -44.0%
Australia -43.3%
Great Britain -42.3%

Rumor Mill: Legendary Oil Barron T Boone Pickens' Hedge Fund Collapsed

You probably heard a few years ago that T. Boone Pickens, who chairs the hedge fund BP Capital Management, gave Oklahoma State a $165 million donation to be used all for helping the school's athletic program. And the largest portion of it was going to be used to beef up the school's football stadium and football facilities. Well, there was one problem with Boone's donation. He left the donation in the hedge fund, which initially seemed to be a good idea as oil prices soared in a post Katrina economic climate, swelling the initial gift to over $300 million. That was before things began to turn in 2007, as international demand for oil failed to meet projections, causing the fund to come to a sudden standstill, and then dropping on mistakes made by fund managers, who were managed by Pickens.Anyway, Pickens resisted pleas by some OSU Regents to bank a good deal of the balance out of the fund when it exceeded $300 million, which was only 14 months ago. Instead Pickens decided on borrowing almost $200 million needed to expand and renovate Boone Pickens Stadium on the Stillwater campus, despite the fact that the donation was dropping in value.Now, here's the bad news. Yesterday all indications were that OSU Regents had been told last Friday afternoon that a large portion of the Pickens donation in the BP Capital hedge fund was virtually wiped out by margin calls on the funds investments in the third quarter. Well, that's not actually the case. It seems that ALL of the money is gone. Officials were told that actually, the entire $ 165 million donation, and the earnings, which once inflated the gift to over $300 million, had recently been eliminated by margin calls due to drastically falling oil prices.As of Monday OSU's gift had flat-lined completely and was declared 'gone.'And just so you know, the school has already made a lot of those improvements to the football field . That's because the school borrowed almost all funds used in the stadium expansion plans using the $300 million balance in BP Capital as collateral.Yikes. So, um, Oklahoma State is now in debt of close to $300 million dollars. I have no idea how in God's name they're going to get out of this. State schools don't exactly have an extra $300 million sitting around. Has a college ever actually declared bankruptcy? I'm not sure, but we're probably about to find out.

UPDATE: ESPN News: Pickens to Replace Lost Donation?

AUSTIN, Texas -- Texas oil tycoon and Oklahoma State University alum T. Boone Pickens said he plans to announce another major financial gift to his alma mater.
Speaking to an ABC sideline reporter Saturday during OSU's football game against Texas in Austin, Pickens said he planned to announce details of the gift on Monday.
Pickens announced a record-setting gift of $165 million to OSU two years ago for athletic programs and then invested it in his BP Capital hedge fund.
But the fund dropped so low amid the national economic downturn that university officials won't say how much is left and the fancy athletic village it was supposed to pay for has been put on hold.
"The program is on schedule. We'll do just exactly what we said we would do," Pickens told ABC in the interview. "On Monday, I'll make another announcement, a major gift to the university."
Pickens said the money from his donation was in a fund with 300 other partners. That fund has sustained sizeable losses.
"We won't come out short. We will come out with more money than we went in with," Pickens told ABC.
Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3663639